Citizen Ben takes you to the Prediction Market
Ben Cable Jun 17, 2026
By Citizen Ben
Gazing Into the Crystal Ball: TRUMP
Every presidency ends eventually. Some end with retirement, some with electoral defeat, some with scandal, and a few with history making a hard left turn when nobody expected it. President Trump’s disastrous, rambling speech at the G7 yesterday in Evian-Les-Bains, France, regarding the Iran “deal”, made me dust off my Citizen Ben Crystal Ball.
So today I’m making a prediction that may sound outrageous now but could become conventional wisdom tomorrow:
Donald Trump will not finish his second term as President of the United States.
Instead, I predict that shortly after the 2026 midterm elections, Trump will leave office citing health concerns or a desire to focus on his family and legacy. Vice President J.D. Vance would then become President of the United States.
And what happens next is where things get interesting.
The Perfect Political Exit Ramp
Presidents rarely surrender power voluntarily. Donald Trump has built his entire public identity around strength, dominance, and winning. Walking away seems inconsistent with everything we know about him.
Unless walking away serves a larger purpose.
By the end of 2026, Trump will be approaching his 81st birthday. The stresses of the presidency are legendary. Every president ages visibly in office. Add legal controversies, international crises, economic uncertainty, and the constant demands of modern politics, and the pressures become extraordinary.
A departure framed around health, family, or the need to “put America first by ensuring continuity of leadership” would allow Trump to control the narrative rather than have events control it for him.
He could leave as the man who chose country over self-interest.
Whether critics believe that story would be beside the point.
Enter President J.D. Vance
If such a transition occurred, J.D. Vance would immediately become president.
For Republicans, it could be the smoothest transfer of power imaginable.
No bruising primary battle.
No civil war within the party.
No uncertainty over succession.
The MAGA movement would continue under a younger leader who has demonstrated loyalty to Trump and who would likely portray himself as the guardian of Trump’s political legacy.
Republicans could simultaneously claim continuity and renewal.
Trumpism without Trump.
At least officially.
The Pardon Scenario
This is where my crystal ball becomes especially cloudy—and controversial.
If Trump leaves office while investigations, lawsuits, congressional inquiries, or future criminal referrals remain active, enormous pressure would exist to close the chapter permanently.
A President Vance would possess one constitutional power capable of doing exactly that:
The pardon power.
I predict that one of the earliest defining acts of a Vance presidency would be a sweeping series of pardons aimed at ending years of legal and political warfare.
The argument would be familiar.
America needs healing.
The country must move forward.
Political prosecutions must end.
National unity requires closure.
Under that rationale, pardons could potentially extend beyond Trump himself to former administration officials, political allies, family members, and others connected to controversial decisions made during the second Trump administration.
Supporters would call it reconciliation.
Critics would call it a cover-up.
History would decide.
Why Timing Matters
The timing is everything.
Before the midterms, Trump remains the centerpiece of Republican turnout.
After the midterms, the political calculation changes.
If Republicans perform well, Trump can claim victory and leave on top.
If Republicans perform poorly, he can argue that a new generation of leadership is needed.
Either outcome creates a plausible off-ramp.
The midterms represent the natural dividing line between governing and legacy-building.
That is why my crystal ball keeps landing on late 2026.
The Legacy Question
Trump has always cared deeply about how history remembers him.
The challenge for every political movement built around a single personality is succession.
Who comes next?
Can the movement survive without its founder?
A carefully orchestrated transition to Vance would answer those questions.
It would allow Trump to remain the movement’s symbolic leader while transferring the burdens of governing to someone else.
In many ways, it would be the final evolution of Trumpism—from a political campaign into a permanent political structure.
What If I’m Wrong?
Predictions are dangerous business.
The future has a way of embarrassing everyone.
Trump may serve every remaining day of his term.
He may run the White House with the same energy he displays today.
J.D. Vance may never have occasion to exercise the pardon power.
Politics remains the art of the unexpected.
But if I were forced to place a wager today, this is where I’d put my chips:
A post-midterm transition.
President J.D. Vance.
A national debate over pardons.
And a political earthquake that reshapes American politics for another generation.
Don’t blame me if the crystal ball is wrong or a little off.
But don’t be surprised if it turns out to be right.
Poll for Readers / Predictions Market
POLL
What do you think is the most likely end to Trump’s presidency?
Trump completes his full term.
Trump is succeeded by J.D. Vance be
Something nobody is predicting yet.
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