Analysis of States at Risk of Shifting
By Ben Cable (Original Post on Substack)
I typically vote in Presidential elections and have not in midterm elections; however, with stakes so high nationally, I need to think locally. Every midterm election shapes the nation’s political trajectory, but the 2026 cycle might just be one of the most consequential in recent memory (at least mine). From governorships and U.S. Senate seats to critical state legislatures and key battleground House districts, the electoral map is marked by volatility and opportunity. What’s at stake is more than just party control; it’s the power to direct state-level voting laws, redistricting, LGBTQ rights, reproductive rights, veterans affairs, and the federal legislative agenda ahead of the 2028 presidential race.
States like Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin, and Georgia sit at the center of this realignment, reflecting more profound shifts in voter sentiment, demographics, and turnout energy. These states don’t just elect senators and governors; they decide control of Congress, shape future presidential battlegrounds, and often serve as national bellwethers.
The graphic below breaks down the most competitive races of the cycle:
- Governorships are at risk in key swing states, including Michigan, Arizona, and Nevada.
- Senate seats in Georgia, North Carolina, and Michigan have real potential to flip.
- House districts in battlegrounds like New York, Pennsylvania, and Arizona could shift the balance of power.
- State legislatures where a one-seat margin could mean the difference between advancing or stalling key policies on climate, education, and healthcare.
Legend: Understanding the Flip Potential
- 🔵 Democrat-held / Likely to Flip to Republican
Seats currently held by Democrats but at high risk of flipping red. - 🔴 Republican-held / Likely to Flip to Democrat
Seats currently held by Republicans but trending blue or being heavily targeted. - 🟡 Toss-up / High Uncertainty
Extremely competitive seats with no clear partisan advantage.
🏛️ Governorships to Watch
- 🟡 Arizona — 🔵 Katie Hobbs (D)
High risk of flipping Republican; Cook rates it a toss-up. - 🟡 Michigan — 🔵 Gretchen Whitmer (D, term-limited)
Open seat in a swing state; highly competitive. - 🟡 Wisconsin — 🔵 Tony Evers (D)
Narrow 2022 win; GOP sees an opportunity. - 🟠 Kansas — 🔵 Laura Kelly (D, term-limited)
Red-leaning state; Republicans likely to reclaim. - 🟡 Nevada — 🔴 Joe Lombardo (R)
Democrats targeting the seat in a swing state. - 🟡 Georgia — 🔴 Brian Kemp (R)
Open-seat; Democrats are competitive in a shifting state.
🏛️ U.S. Senate: Most Competitive Races
- 🟡 Georgia — 🔵 Jon Ossoff (D)
Top GOP target; highly competitive in a red-trending state. - 🟡 Michigan — 🔵 Open Seat (D)
Democrat retiring; open-seat in a swing state. - 🟡 North Carolina — 🔴 Thom Tillis (R)
Purple state; key Democratic flip opportunity. - 🟠 Maine — 🔴 Susan Collins (R)
Democrats targeting this blue-state incumbent.
🏠 U.S. House: Key Flip States
- 🟡 Arizona — 3 🔵 / 5 🔴
AZ-1, AZ-6 narrowly held by GOP; Dems targeting. - 🟡 Colorado — 4 🔵 / 4 🔴
CO-8 is a top swing district. - 🟡 Michigan — 7 🔵 / 7 🔴
MI-7 and MI-10 are among the most contested. - 🟠 New Jersey — 9 🔵 / 3 🔴
NJ-7 is a perennial battleground. - 🟡 Pennsylvania — 9 🔵 / 9 🔴
PA-7 and PA-10 are competitive and flippable. - 🟡 Virginia — 2 🔵 / 5 🔴
VA-2 is a key Democratic target. - 🟡 Iowa — 1 🔵 / 3 🔴
IA-1 and IA-3 held by slim GOP margins. - 🟠 Wisconsin — 4 🔵 / 3 🔴
WI-3 flipped red in 2022; Dems want it back. - 🟠 Maine — 1 🔵 / 1 🔴
ME-2 is a pro-Trump district held by a Democrat. - 🟠 New Hampshire — 1 🔵 / 1 🔴
NH-1 likely to be open; possible GOP pickup. - 🟡 New York — 19 🔵 / 14 🔴
Multiple GOP-held swing seats; Dems eyeing NY-17 and more.
🏛️ State Legislatures: Battleground Chambers
- 🟡 Michigan — Senate 🔵 / House 🔴
One-seat flip in 2024; both chambers competitive. - 🟡 Pennsylvania — Both chambers 🔵
Dems barely hold both; GOP wants them back. - 🟡 Minnesota — Senate 34–33 🔵 / House 67–67 (tie)
A literal tie in the House—razor thin. - 🟡 Nevada — Both chambers 🔵 / Gov 🔴
Republicans aiming to align with governor. - 🟠 New Hampshire — Both chambers 🔴
GOP holds narrow edge; Dems see a path.
While Republicans are eyeing open Democratic seats and low-margin wins, Democrats see an opportunity to reclaim suburban districts and gubernatorial offices in states trending blue. This dance of power isn’t just about control; it’s about the kind of future Americans want to live in.
And it’s not just about party politics. At a time when voting rights, reproductive freedoms, climate policy, and economic justice hinge on razor-thin margins, each one of these contested seats carries outsized weight. The direction of the country may depend less on sweeping national trends and more on what happens in a few thousand precincts in a handful of states.
The Bottom line: If we want to safeguard democracy, reject authoritarianism, protect civil rights, and move toward a more inclusive and just future, these races matter. The 2026 midterms are not just another election; they’re a test of whether we were paying attention.
For suggestions on what you can do today, read Being Silent Is No Longer An Option
